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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 43 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model