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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 46

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to CAR 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-89-V.McDonald.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model