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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 25 for 6 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model