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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 31 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model