Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

(8:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to CAR 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model