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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Saturday 2016-01-16 · 16:35 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

KC
41.2%
NE
58.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NE on 6 more days rest than KC
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.138 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
NE 26
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

KC

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Concussion
Mitch Morse C Out Concussion
Justin Houston LB Questionable Knee
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Ankle
Spencer Ware RB Questionable Ankle
Albert Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee
Jeff Allen G Probable Thumb
Zach Fulton G Probable Ankle
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
Joshua Mauga LB Probable Ankle
Jah Reid T Probable Knee

NE

Tre' Jackson G Out Knee
Jonathan Freeny LB Questionable Hand
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Scott Chandler TE Questionable Knee
Justin Coleman CB Questionable Concussion
Nate Ebner S Questionable Hand
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Chandler Jones DE Questionable Abdomen
Rob Ninkovich DE Questionable Shin
Sebastian Vollmer T Questionable Ankle
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Shoulder
Tom Brady QB Probable Ankle
Josh Kline G Probable Shoulder
Brandon LaFell WR Probable Foot
Devin McCourty S Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 20
–
NE 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:27 TD NE (10:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 87-Gronkowski 7th career postseason receiving TD, ties David Givens for franchise record and ties all-time record for postseason rec TD by a TE (Casper & Davis). KC 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 01:55 FG KC (1:55) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – NE 7
  • Q2 03:25 TD NE (3:25) 60-D.Andrews reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 6th career postseason rush TD, 2nd in franchise history (LeGarrette Blount, 7). KC 3 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:16 FG KC (:16) 5-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – NE 14
  • Q3 08:29 TD NE (8:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 17th career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL record (Favre 15). NE 87-Gronkowski 8th career postseason receiving TD, new franchise record and new all-time record for postseason rec TD by a TE. KC 6 – NE 20
  • Q3 02:17 TD KC (2:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 12-A.Wilson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-R.Ninkovich]. KC 12 – NE 21
  • Q4 14:49 FG NE (14:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. KC 13 – NE 24
  • Q4 10:24 FG NE (10:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 126 career postseason points, ties Thurman Thomas & Emmitt Smith for 5th all-time. KC 13 – NE 27
  • Q4 01:18 TD KC (1:18) (Shotgun) 35-C.West right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (1:55) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (15:00) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to KC 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-F.Hammond to KC 33 for 8 yards (38-B.Bolden).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (11:36) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:51) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to KC 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-F.Hammond to NE 36 for 19 yards (85-M.Williams).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (9:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to NE 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-D.Alexander. PENALTY on NE-80-D.Amendola, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at NE 4.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (:16) 5-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 87%

    (14:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NE 46, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at KC 32 for 22 yards (41-J.Winchester).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (10:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski now has 126 career postseason points, ties Thurman Thomas & Emmitt Smith for 5th all-time.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 23%

    (7:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right intended for 12-A.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon at NE 23. 30-D.Harmon ran ob at NE 23 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 12-A.Wilson (30-D.Harmon).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 44%

    (6:39) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:42) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 81-J.Avant to NE 47 for 13 yards (26-L.Ryan).