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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 42

New England Patriots 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP