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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.33 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.53 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP