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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 22

New England Patriots 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model