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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(4:42) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 81-J.Avant to NE 47 for 13 yards (26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP