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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(:16) 5-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model