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Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
@
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

TEN
48.5%
IND
51.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Josh Freeman (IND) -0.187 vs Zach Mettenberger (TEN) -0.033 EPA/dropback (IND starting Josh Freeman in place of Matt Hasselbeck)
  • TEN defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Josh Freeman (IND) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
IND 22
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

TEN

Taylor Lewan T Out Concussion
Marcus Mariota QB Out Knee
Kendall Wright WR Out Knee
Sammie Lee Hill DT Questionable Knee
Wesley Woodyard LB Probable Illness
Jalston Fowler RB Probable Toe
Michael Griffin S Probable Foot

IND

Trent Cole LB Out Concussion
Matt Hasselbeck QB Out Shoulder
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
Sio Moore LB Questionable Knee
Winston Guy S Questionable Hamstring
Colt Anderson S Questionable Ankle
Donte Moncrief WR Probable Toe
Mike Adams S Probable Ankle
Darius Butler CB Probable Hip
T.Y. Hilton WR Probable Calf
Jack Mewhort G Probable Illness
Erik Walden LB Probable Foot
Jack Doyle TE Probable Toe
Jerrell Freeman LB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 24
–
IND 30

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:02 FG IND (9:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TEN 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 02:25 TD TEN (2:25) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 3
  • Q1 00:21 TD IND (:21) (Run formation) 60-L.Louis reported in as eligible. 5-Jo.Freeman pass deep middle to 80-C.Fleener for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 9
  • Q2 10:28 TD TEN (10:28) (Run formation) 23-D.Cobb up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 10
  • Q2 06:35 FG IND (6:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TEN 14 – IND 13
  • Q2 00:19 TD IND (:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Lindley pass deep right to 81-A.Johnson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-B.Orakpo]. TEN 14 – IND 19
  • Q3 14:29 TD IND (14:29) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass short left INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Freeman (33-D.Lowery) at TEN 23. 50-J.Freeman for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – IND 26
  • Q3 07:36 FG TEN (7:36) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 17 – IND 27
  • Q4 11:12 TD TEN (11:12) (Run formation) 11-A.Tanney pass short left to 17-D.Green-Beckham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 23 – IND 27
  • Q4 02:29 FG IND (2:29) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TEN 24 – IND 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (9:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:33) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray to IND 27 for 3 yards (16-T.McBride). PENALTY on IND-31-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 11 yards, enforced at IND 24.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:28) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to TEN 45, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-32-C.Anderson.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:56) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray to IND 8 for -1 yards (16-T.McBride).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (10:28) (Run formation) 23-D.Cobb up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 68%

    (6:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:07) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to IND 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray. PENALTY on IND-31-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 27.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 26%

    (2:52) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to TEN 2, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-32-C.Anderson.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:51) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray to IND 42 for 2 yards (52-S.Johnson).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (7:36) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 44%

    (4:04) 1-P.McAfee punts 29 yards to TEN 15, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-35-A.Davis.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:19) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to IND 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 58 yards to TEN 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-H.Douglas pushed ob at TEN 41 for 9 yards (36-D.Herron).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:16) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to TEN 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-H.Douglas MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 33. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 33 for no gain (32-C.Anderson). TEN-83-H.Douglas was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Staples, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 33.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:40) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at 50 for 17 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (2:29) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.