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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 1
Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10
What Actually Happened
(10:28) (Run formation) 23-D.Cobb up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.44 EP
KICK
+1.71 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
