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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model