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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to IND 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray. PENALTY on IND-31-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP