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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to IND 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP