Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray to IND 27 for 3 yards (16-T.McBride). PENALTY on IND-31-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 11 yards, enforced at IND 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model