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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to TEN 2, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-32-C.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model