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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DAL
26.5%
BUF
73.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.138 vs Kellen Moore (DAL) -0.185 EPA/dropback (DAL starting Kellen Moore in place of Matt Cassel)
  • BUF defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 17
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DAL

Gavin Escobar TE Out Achilles
Tony Romo QB Out left Shoulder
Dez Bryant WR Doubtful Foot
Cole Beasley WR Questionable Knee
Morris Claiborne CB Questionable Hamstring
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Jones P Probable left Knee
Rolando McClain LB Probable Concussion
Jeff Heath S Probable Shoulder
Demarcus Lawrence DE Probable Chest
Jason Witten TE Probable Chest

BUF

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
Charles Clay TE Out Back
LeSean McCoy RB Out Knee
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Groin
Ron Brooks CB Probable Neck
Stefan Charles DT Probable Shoulder
Anthony Dixon RB Probable Knee
John Miller G Probable Ankle
Walter Powell WR Probable Hip
Bacarri Rambo S Probable Knee
Mario Williams DE Probable Hand
Karlos Williams RB Probable Shoulder
Eric Wood C Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 6
–
BUF 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:45 FG DAL (9:45) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – BUF 0
  • Q1 00:51 TD BUF (:51) (Shotgun) 29-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – BUF 6
  • Q2 05:29 FG DAL (5:29) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – BUF 6
  • Q3 06:21 FG BUF (6:21) 2-D.Carpenter 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. DAL 6 – BUF 9
  • Q4 02:34 TD BUF (2:34) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: C.Hogan. DAL 6 – BUF 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 76%

    (9:45) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 59%

    (5:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 15-C.Hogan (21-T.Mitchell). Receiver and coverage along sideline at DAL 8.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (2:49) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

    (10:57) 6-C.Jones punts 25 yards to BUF 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-W.Powell.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to DAL 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at BUF 44 for 28 yards (20-C.Graham). BUF-81-M.Easley was injured during the play. He is Out. M.Easley removed from field on cart.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (5:29) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to DAL 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:01) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to BUF 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (6:21) 2-D.Carpenter 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 35%

    (14:06) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to BUF 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-38-J.Heath.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to DAL 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 31 for 4 yards (27-D.Williams).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%

    (7:02) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to BUF 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-40-D.McCray.