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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to BUF 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-40-D.McCray.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model