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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 6-C.Jones punts 25 yards to BUF 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-W.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model