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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model