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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 15-C.Hogan (21-T.Mitchell). Receiver and coverage along sideline at DAL 8.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model