4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 4, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model