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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 6 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to DAL 28, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at BUF 44 for 28 yards (20-C.Graham). BUF-81-M.Easley was injured during the play. He is Out. M.Easley removed from field on cart.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP