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Kansas City Chiefs

9-5 HC Andy Reid
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Baltimore Ravens

4-10 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 13:00 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

KC
67.2%
BAL
32.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Jimmy Clausen (BAL): -0.321 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.168 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 23 16–30
–
BAL 18 11–25
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

KC

Husain Abdullah S Out Concussion
Justin Houston LB Out Knee
De'Anthony Thomas WR Out Concussion
Jeff Allen G Questionable Ankle
Spencer Ware RB Questionable Rib
Tamba Hali LB Probable Knee
Chase Daniel QB Probable Toe
Mike Devito DE Probable Concussion
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin

BAL

Crockett Gillmore TE Out Back
Kyle Arrington CB Doubtful Back
Marlon Brown WR Doubtful Back
Albert McClellan LB Doubtful Ankle
Terrance West RB Questionable Calf
Elvis Dumervil LB Probable Not Injury Related
Kelechi Osemele G Probable Knee
Matt Schaub QB Probable Chest
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related
Marshal Yanda G Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 34
–
BAL 14

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:22 TD KC (9:22) No.79 - Stephenson reports as eligible. 35-C.West left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-35-C.West, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 06:35 TD BAL (6:35) 2-J.Clausen pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – BAL 6
  • Q1 03:03 TD KC (3:03) (Shotgun) 37-J.Allen left guard to KC 27 for 3 yards (56-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (56-D.Johnson), RECOVERED by KC-27-T.Branch at KC 27. 27-T.Branch for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – BAL 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Maclin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – BAL 7
  • Q2 00:54 FG KC (:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 24 – BAL 7
  • Q2 00:04 TD BAL (:04) (Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass deep left to 11-K.Aiken for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-F.Zombo]. KC 24 – BAL 13
  • Q4 06:50 FG KC (6:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 27 – BAL 14
  • Q4 04:50 TD KC (4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass short right intended for 83-D.Brown INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at KC 10. 22-M.Peters for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 33 – BAL 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:06) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to BAL 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-K.Clay to BAL 37 for 10 yards (57-D.Alexander).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch up the middle to BAL 24 for 7 yards (49-D.Sorensen). Koch tries a fake punt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (6:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to BAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to KC 36, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 63%

    (:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:33) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to KC 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-F.Hammond to KC 48 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 30%

    (11:21) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to BAL 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-F.Hammond to KC 7 for -10 yards (28-B.Trawick).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:18) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to BAL 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%

    (:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to KC 5, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (6:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass short middle to 87-M.Williams to BAL 31 for 6 yards (56-D.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:50) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BAL 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-K.Clay ran ob at BAL 38 for 17 yards (54-D.Moses).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass incomplete short left to 13-C.Givens (30-J.Fleming).

    See the full breakdown →