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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to KC 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-F.Hammond to KC 48 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.96 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 41, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP