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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 34 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BAL 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-K.Clay ran ob at BAL 38 for 17 yards (54-D.Moses).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP