Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

(4:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass short middle to 87-M.Williams to BAL 31 for 6 yards (56-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP