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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(11:21) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to BAL 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model