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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(6:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 85-F.Hammond to KC 7 for -10 yards (28-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model