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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model