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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

ATL
35.8%
JAX
64.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 18
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ATL

Paul Worrilow LB Out Knee
Jacob Tamme TE Probable Back
Desmond Trufant CB Probable Calf
Chris Chester G Probable Shoulder
Devin Hester WR Probable Toe
Paul Soliai DT Probable Calf

JAX

Ryan Davis DE Doubtful Knee
T.J. Yeldon RB Doubtful Knee
Sergio Brown S Questionable Thumb
Dwayne Gratz CB Questionable Hamstring
Nic Jacobs TE Questionable Hamstring
Bryan Walters WR Questionable Back
Andre Branch DE Probable Groin
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Allen Hurns WR Probable Thigh
Jermey Parnell T Probable Knee
Paul Posluszny LB Probable Hand
Roy Miller DT Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 23
–
JAX 17

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:55 TD ATL (10:55) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 14:09 FG JAX (14:09) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. ATL 7 – JAX 3
  • Q2 03:57 TD ATL (3:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 6-S.Graham 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 17 – JAX 3
  • Q3 10:47 TD JAX (10:47) 93-T.Alualu reported in as eligible. 5-B.Bortles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – JAX 9
  • Q3 06:21 TD JAX (6:21) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-21-D.Trufant, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. ATL 17 – JAX 16
  • Q4 10:31 FG ATL (10:31) 6-S.Graham 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 20 – JAX 17
  • Q4 01:46 FG ATL (1:46) 6-S.Graham 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 23 – JAX 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:02) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to ATL 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester pushed ob at ATL 41 for 8 yards (29-J.Banyard).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:56) (Punt formation) 14-E.Weems left end pushed ob at JAX 48 for 8 yards (25-P.Thompson). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 48.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:45) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to JAX 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-54-N.Stupar.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:14) 19-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ATL 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester ran ob at ATL 45 for 10 yards (29-J.Banyard).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 26%

    (2:35) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to JAX 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (14:09) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to JAX 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-R.Greene to JAX 37 for 17 yards (71-K.Biermann).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (9:37) 19-B.Anger punts 21 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:56) 19-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ATL 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester to ATL 31 for no gain (29-J.Banyard).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to JAX 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-R.Greene to JAX 42 for 20 yards (54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on JAX-86-C.Harbor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 56%

    (:08) 5-M.Bosher punts 27 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-32-J.Collins.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:35) 19-B.Anger punts 60 yards to ATL 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester to ATL 38 for 3 yards (52-H.Pullard).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (10:31) 6-S.Graham 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:33) 19-B.Anger punts 43 yards to ATL 31, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 77%

    (1:46) 6-S.Graham 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 15-A.Robinson (23-R.Alford).