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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.90 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model