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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 6-S.Graham 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model