Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Atlanta Falcons 20

(8:33) 19-B.Anger punts 43 yards to ATL 31, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model