Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to JAX 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-R.Greene to JAX 42 for 20 yards (54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on JAX-86-C.Harbor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.83 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model