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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to JAX 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model