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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 19-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ATL 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester ran ob at ATL 45 for 10 yards (29-J.Banyard).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model