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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DAL
31.5%
GB
68.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Matt Cassel (DAL): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB on 4 more days rest than DAL
  • GB offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 18
–
GB 24
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DAL

Tony Romo QB Out left Shoulder
Dez Bryant WR Probable Foot
Greg Hardy DE Probable Shin
Jeff Heath S Probable Shoulder

GB

Corey Linsley C Doubtful Ankle
Nick Perry LB Questionable Shoulder
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Ankle
Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Ankle
David Bakhtiari T Probable Knee
Damarious Randall CB Probable Hamstring
T.J. Lang G Probable Shoulder
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 7
–
GB 28

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:55 TD GB (9:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 44-J.Starks for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 02:45 TD GB (2:45) 79-J.Walker reported in as eligible. 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 82-R.Rodgers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – GB 13
  • Q3 08:28 TD DAL (8:28) 23-R.Turbin up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – GB 14
  • Q4 04:50 TD GB (4:50) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – GB 20
  • Q4 02:50 TD GB (2:50) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:40) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to DAL 26, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 24 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (1:06) 12-A.Rodgers left guard to DAL 1 for no gain (96-N.Hayden).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to GB 49, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde to DAL 48 for 3 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:00) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to GB 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:57) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to GB 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde to GB 26 for 1 yard (59-A.Hitchens).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:56) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to DAL 24, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 22 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:30) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to GB 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde to GB 29 for 9 yards (27-J.Wilcox).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

    (10:39) 8-T.Masthay punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 41 yards to DAL 24, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:06) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-23-D.Randall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 29.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:35) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to DAL 20, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:22) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to GB 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at GB 19.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 53 yards to DAL 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 28 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis; 39-D.Goodson).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:25) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to GB 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:14) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass incomplete short middle to 20-D.McFadden.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 16 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass incomplete short left to 82-J.Witten (91-J.Elliott).