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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 41 yards to DAL 24, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model