Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 8-T.Masthay punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP

KICK -0.94 EP

36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model