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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-23-D.Randall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 29.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP