Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

(14:22) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to GB 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at GB 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.00 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model