Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 21

(3:14) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass incomplete short middle to 20-D.McFadden.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.64 EP
54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model