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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to GB 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde to GB 29 for 9 yards (27-J.Wilcox).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP