Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- CHI defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- CHI offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- Jay Cutler (CHI): +0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CHI on 3 more days rest than SF
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
SF
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:22 FG CHI (10:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SF 0 – CHI 3
- Q1 06:04 FG CHI (6:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SF 0 – CHI 6
- Q1 02:58 TD SF (2:58) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Ward at CHI 29. 25-J.Ward for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 6
- Q2 13:42 TD CHI (13:42) (Shotgun) 22-M.Forte left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-93-I.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Probable. #93 I.Williams injured his knee. SF 6 – CHI 12
- Q2 06:56 TD SF (6:56) 24-S.Draughn right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 12 – CHI 13
- Q4 03:39 TD CHI (3:39) 74-J.Bushrod reported in as eligible. 25-K.Carey left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – CHI 19
- Q4 01:52 TD SF (1:52) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert scrambles right tackle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – CHI 20
- Q5 13:01 TD SF (13:01) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep left to 82-T.Smith for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – CHI 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 13 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(14:00) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to CHI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 37-B.Callahan for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CHI-52-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 31.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 87%
(10:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q1 SF 4th & 12 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:02) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CHI 38, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 47 for 9 yards (50-N.Bellore).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 68%
(6:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:56) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to CHI 21, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 33 for 12 yards (50-N.Bellore).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 16 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(5:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SF 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Ellington to SF 29 for -1 yards (27-S.McManis).
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Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 38Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%
(3:22) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback. San Francisco challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 03:07.)
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Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%
(1:56) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to SF 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 87%
(8:48) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:32) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to CHI 7, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 19 for 12 yards (35-E.Reid).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 45%
(1:01) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 27 yards to SF 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.
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Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(14:26) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SF 46, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(12:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to SF 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(11:21) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CHI 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 41 for -1 yards (25-J.Ward; 50-N.Bellore).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(9:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to SF 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Ellington to SF 21 for 1 yard (31-C.Prosinski).
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Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(7:34) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CHI 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani pushed ob at CHI 17 for 6 yards (30-K.Gaskins).