4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 47

Chicago Bears 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to SF 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP