Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 67

Chicago Bears 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(9:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to SF 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Ellington to SF 21 for 1 yard (31-C.Prosinski).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.67 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model