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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to CHI 21, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 33 for 12 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model